To his credit, Kasy is a realist here. He doesn’t presume that any of these proposals will be easy to implement. Or that it will happen overnight, or even in the near future. The troubling question at ...

Academics look at problematic algorithm to inform regulatory discussion A picture is worth a thousand words or, perhaps, a hundred thousand dollars in extra salary. Academics claim that personality ...

For years, the strange phenomenon of precognition–an unwavering “gut feeling” that something will happen in the future–has puzzled scientists. The eerie concept may sound far-fetched, but many studies ...

Peter Drucker emphasizes that the future is shaped by proactive actions. Here's how investors and entreprenuers can draw ...

Mathematicians may have a better way to measure agreement across different datasets. Agreement affects reproducibility, meta-analysis, and prediction to fill in missing data points. We need a more ...

When we set our expectations and operate based on the sequence of events that unfolded the last time a similar situation has occurred, we surrender to history.

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American If a crystal ball could reveal your personal ...

A fox, a hedgehog and an LLM – it sounds like the beginning of a joke, but this is in fact the introduction to a topic that is consuming the attention of Philip Tetlock, psychology professor, ...

On-chain prediction markets such as Myriad have rapidly gained traction in recent years. Here’s how they work.